Last week Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, spoke to the United States Congress at the invitation of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, John Boehner. In the context of reports that the United States, in concert with the other permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and other major powers, was about to come to an agreement with Iran restricting its capacity to develop and deploy nuclear weapons, Mr. Netanyahu’s advice to those negotiating with Iran was simple. Walk away, step up sanctions against Iran and they will come back offering better terms.
Just under fifteen years ago at the Camp David Summit Yasar Arafat, then the leader of the Palestine Liberation Organization, was in a position similar to that faced by the USA today. Israeli Prime Minister, Ehud Barak, with the support of the USA , had offered him an independent Palestinian state consisting of the entire Gaza Strip and 73% (rising to 91% over the next 10-25 years) of the West Bank including pockets of East Jerusalem.
Playing the part of Netanyahu, Hamas and PLO hardliners pressured Arafat to refuse the offer and to launch new attacks against Israel, confidently predicting that the Israelis would soon come back with a better offer. We all know how well that strategy worked out for the Palestinians.
Fortunately, President Obama does not seem willing to repeat Arafat’s mistake.
Walking away from the negotiating table and putting additional pressure on your adversaries in the belief that will that they will come back with a better offer is just what it appears to be: a high stakes gamble based on wishful thinking.