“In the summer of 1982, during the 1981-82 recession, a Gallup poll was published showing the federal Liberals at 28%. Undaunted by this, the Liberal research softball team appeared at their next game wearing T-shirts with the slogan “28 in 82, 48 in 84.” And, indeed, in 1984 just after John Turner was elected Liberal leader replacing Pierre Trudeau, a Gallup poll came out showing the Liberals leading the Progressive Conservatives by 48% to 41%. Unfortunately for Mr. Turner fortune turned massively against the Liberals again before the 1984 election.
I have always remembered this as a classic illustration of how political fortunes can rise and fall with dizzying speed and ruthless efficiency. In the words of another short-lived Prime Minister, Arthur Meighen, for John Turner in 1984 “fortune came and fortune fled.

On September 14th New Brunswick held the first general election in Canada since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite some fears turnout was almost identical to the last three elections in the province. However, New Brunswick has one of the lowest incidences of infection of any jurisdiction in North America. This result may not hold for provinces nearing elections with higher infection rates such as Saskatchewan.
Women will be a much larger share of the governing PC caucus, accounting for 9 of its 27 members, up from 4 in 2018. Three of the new women PC MLAs gained seats from the Liberals, accounting for half the seats gained by the party in the election.
Kevin Vickers did not meet the expectations of those Liberals who hoped his celebrity status would allow them to make inroads in anglophone ridings, particularly in his home area of the Miramichi. He failed to win the Miramichi riding from the incumbent People’s Alliance member and gained no anglophone ridings elsewhere in the province. The Liberals gained only one seat they lost in 2018, capturing the almost exclusively francophone constituency of Shippagan-Lemeque-Miscou. This constituency narrowly gave the PCs their only francophone member in 2018, but it went over 80% Liberal this time.
That result was part of a larger pattern. The PCs increased their share of the vote in 41 of the 49 constituencies and picked up five urban seats in Moncton, Saint John and Fredericton. But except for Campbellton-Dalhousie, the eight constituencies where their vote share fell, often from already very low levels, were the most heavily francophone areas of the province. (the Shediac seat, three in Northwest New Brunswick and three on the Acadian Peninsula in Gloucester County). Despite their election of a francophone member in Moncton East the PCs clearly have a lot of work to do to become competitive in francophone majority constituencies which supported Bernard Lord and Richard Hatfield in their terms as PC premiers.